Many have seen this chart: it represents the electrified (BEV+PHEV) market share of global vehicles sales
No everybody realizes that the data series is well approximated by an exponential curve (actually, if anything, it’s a wee bit faster),
and, projecting this curve for a few more periods, we get… this!
In other words, extrapolating the historic data series we attain 100% electrified sales well ahead of the much-maligned EU ban of 2035. What will be the most important consequence?
Well, researchers from RMI, Systems Change Lab and EEIST told us a few weeks ago: their studies show that an electrified market share above 2/3 would put at risk HALF of oil revenues !
Not a surprise, really: of all the primary energy uses, the internal combustion engine is the least efficient: if in general we waste 67% of the primary energy we use (the light grey bars in this diagram) the ICE engine brings the waste quota to 80%. Given the majority of primary energy is currently of fossil origin, cutting the waste reduces significantly the primary energy need of the world.
Now you understand why #petrolls went all-in in their propaganda efforts to slow down the switch to electric?
They’re fighting for their own survival !
And it’s not like they have forever: IEA calculated we are very close to the fabled Peak Year, i.e. the year where oil consumption will be maximum and from there…. it’s all downhill!
OneWedge 